Matrix Power Rating-5.7National #92
Projected Wins7.82National #32
Schedule Strength#129National SOS rank
Projected Offense33.2Points per game
Projected Defense26.5Points allowed
Point Differential+6.7Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-5.7 → -5.7
Projected Wins7.82 → 7.82
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (8 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total7.5
Effective Market7.38
Adjusted Edge+0.44
SignalLean
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 5PSPenn StateAway · Nonconference5%Win %17–42Baseline score-25.1Margin59.2TotalMediumFBSOpponent
SEP 12MTMiddle TennesseeHome · Nonconference94%Win %41–18Baseline score+23.7Margin59.9TotalMediumFBSOpponent
SEP 19MSMissouri StateAway · Nonconference77%Win %35–24Baseline score+11.2Margin58.7TotalMediumFBSOpponent
SEP 26GGardner-WebbHome · Nonconference — FCS81%Win %36–23Baseline score+13.2Margin58.8TotalMediumFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
OCT 10CCCoastal CarolinaHome · Sun Belt77%Win %36–25Baseline score+10.8Margin60.8TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 14ASAppalachian StateHome · Sun Belt73%Win %35–26Baseline score+9.1Margin60.4TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 21GSGeorgia StateHome · Sun Belt93%Win %43–20Baseline score+22.5Margin62.7TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.