2026 MATRIXWEEK 1138 FBS TEAMS91 GAMESCOLLEGE FOOTBALL DECODEDMODEL + MARKET + CONTEXT
GameDay Matrix
Weekly Matrix · Week 1

The Week Runs Through
The Matrix.

Every Week 1 game, every model signal and every piece of personnel context on one working slate — from projected finals and win probability to market disagreement and confidence. Week 0 stays preserved as the final-results archive.

Matrix Signal
Top side: Ball State +8.5Top total: Ball State at Ohio State UNDER 7.410 side signals13 total signals3 public holds · 1 core projection hold
LIVE LAYER · Connecting…

Week 1 Projection Board

Current locked Week 1 model snapshot · All kickoff times EST.

91 games
THU, SEP 3 · 7:00 PM ESTSATURDAY WAR
AlbanyFCS / Other
Projected Final22–25Buffalo 59%
BuffaloMPR #110 · 0-0
FavoriteBuffalo
Win Probability59%
Margin-3.2
Total47.4
at Buffalo
FBS vs FCS · FCS CALIBRATION QUARANTINE
THU, SEP 3 · 7:00 PM ESTFCS TEST
Bethune-CookmanFCS / Other
Projected Final12–37UCF 96%
UCFMPR #58 · 0-0
FavoriteUCF
Win Probability96%
Margin-25.9
Total49.0
at UCF
FBS vs FCS · FCS CALIBRATION QUARANTINE
THU, SEP 3 · 7:00 PM ESTFCS TEST
MerrimackFCS / Other
Projected Final24–32Delaware 71%
DelawareMPR #113 · 0-0
FavoriteDelaware
Win Probability71%
Margin-8.1
Total55.5
at Delaware
FBS vs FCS · FCS CALIBRATION QUARANTINE
THU, SEP 3 · 7:00 PM ESTFCS TEST
West GeorgiaFCS / Other
Projected Final22–30Kennesaw State 69%
Kennesaw StateMPR #104 · 0-0
FavoriteKennesaw State
Win Probability69%
Margin-7.6
Total51.6
at Kennesaw State
FBS vs FCS · FCS CALIBRATION QUARANTINE
THU, SEP 3 · 8:00 PM ESTBIGGEST MISMATCH
Arkansas-Pine BluffFCS / Other
Projected Final5–46Missouri 100%
MissouriMPR #21 · 0-0
FavoriteMissouri
Win Probability100%
Margin-40.9
Total50.6
at Missouri
FBS vs FCS · FCS CALIBRATION QUARANTINE
THU, SEP 3 · 8:00 PM ESTFCS TEST
Eastern IllinoisFCS / Other
Projected Final9–39Minnesota 98%
MinnesotaMPR #44 · 0-0
FavoriteMinnesota
Win Probability98%
Margin-30.1
Total48.0
at Minnesota
FBS vs FCS · FCS CALIBRATION QUARANTINE
THU, SEP 3 · 9:00 PM ESTFCS TEST
IdahoFCS / Other
Projected Final15–38Utah 94%
UtahMPR #26 · 0-0
FavoriteUtah
Win Probability94%
Margin-23.1
Total53.3
at Utah
FBS vs FCS · FCS CALIBRATION QUARANTINE
FRI, SEP 4 · 7:00 PM ESTFCS TEST
Indiana StateFCS / Other
Projected Final14–37Purdue 94%
PurdueMPR #83 · 0-0
FavoritePurdue
Win Probability94%
Margin-23.1
Total51.3
at Purdue
FBS vs FCS · FCS CALIBRATION QUARANTINE
FRI, SEP 4 · 7:00 PM ESTUPSET ALERT
North Carolina A&TFCS / Other
Projected Final29–28North Carolina A&T 51%
Georgia StateMPR #133 · 0-0
FavoriteNorth Carolina A&T
Win Probability51%
Margin-0.3
Total55.7
at Georgia State
FBS vs FCS · FCS CALIBRATION QUARANTINE
FRI, SEP 4 · 8:00 PM ESTFCS TEST
Long IslandFCS / Other
Projected Final10–43Kansas 99%
KansasMPR #57 · 0-0
FavoriteKansas
Win Probability99%
Margin-33.5
Total53.2
at Kansas
FBS vs FCS · FCS CALIBRATION QUARANTINE
SAT, SEP 5 · 12:00 PM ESTFCS TEST
BryantFCS / Other
Projected Final17–35Army 88%
ArmyMPR #81 · 0-0
FavoriteArmy
Win Probability88%
Margin-17.8
Total52.0
at Army
FBS vs FCS · FCS CALIBRATION QUARANTINE
SAT, SEP 5 · 12:00 PM ESTFCS TEST
LafayetteFCS / Other
Projected Final23–29UConn 65%
UConnMPR #107 · 0-0
FavoriteUConn
Win Probability65%
Margin-5.8
Total52.3
at UConn
FBS vs FCS · FCS CALIBRATION QUARANTINE
SAT, SEP 5 · 12:00 PM ESTFCS TEST
New HampshireFCS / Other
Projected Final19–30Syracuse 77%
SyracuseMPR #70 · 0-0
FavoriteSyracuse
Win Probability77%
Margin-11.0
Total50.0
at Syracuse
FBS vs FCS · FCS CALIBRATION QUARANTINE
SAT, SEP 5 · 12:00 PM ESTUPSET ALERT
Tarleton StateFCS / Other
Projected Final25–22Tarleton State 56%
Bowling GreenMPR #115 · 0-0
FavoriteTarleton State
Win Probability56%
Margin-2.1
Total47.0
at Bowling Green
FBS vs FCS · FCS UPSET WATCH · NOT PRIMARY
SAT, SEP 5 · 1:00 PM ESTFCS TEST
DuquesneFCS / Other
Projected Final16–37Air Force 92%
Air ForceMPR #77 · 0-0
FavoriteAir Force
Win Probability92%
Margin-21.2
Total52.5
at Air Force
FBS vs FCS · FCS CALIBRATION QUARANTINE
SAT, SEP 5 · 1:00 PM ESTFCS TEST
Southeast Missouri StateFCS / Other
Projected Final17–32Iowa State 84%
Iowa StateMPR #69 · 0-0
FavoriteIowa State
Win Probability84%
Margin-14.8
Total48.3
at Iowa State
FBS vs FCS · FCS CALIBRATION QUARANTINE
SAT, SEP 5 · 1:00 PM ESTFCS TEST
Youngstown StateFCS / Other
Projected Final18–31Kentucky 82%
KentuckyMPR #56 · 0-0
FavoriteKentucky
Win Probability82%
Margin-13.8
Total48.9
at Kentucky
FBS vs FCS · FCS CALIBRATION QUARANTINE
SAT, SEP 5 · 2:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
Rhode IslandFCS / Other
Projected Final22–34Temple 79%
TempleMPR #101 · 0-0
FavoriteTemple
Win Probability79%
Margin-11.9
Total56.0
at Temple
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 3:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
Tennessee StateFCS / Other
Projected Final5–47Georgia 100%
GeorgiaMPR #4 · 0-0
FavoriteGeorgia
Win Probability100%
Margin-42.0
Total51.7
at Georgia
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 3:30 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
FordhamFCS / Other
Projected Final4–46North Dakota State 100%
North Dakota StateMPR #61 · 1-0
FavoriteNorth Dakota State
Win Probability100%
Margin-42.0
Total50.9
at North Dakota State
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 3:30 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
FurmanFCS / Other
Projected Final8–50Tennessee 100%
TennesseeMPR #18 · 0-0
FavoriteTennessee
Win Probability100%
Margin-42.0
Total57.1
at Tennessee
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 3:30 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
MaineFCS / Other
Projected Final18–36Appalachian State 89%
Appalachian StateMPR #114 · 0-0
FavoriteAppalachian State
Win Probability89%
Margin-18.3
Total53.4
at Appalachian State
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 3:30 PM ESTFCS CAL · QA WATCH
The CitadelFCS / Other
Projected Final21–31Charlotte 73%
CharlotteMPR #138 · 0-0
FavoriteCharlotte
Win Probability73%
Margin-9.3
Total52.3
at Charlotte
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 3:30 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
TowsonFCS / Other
Projected Final11–42Navy 98%
NavyMPR #65 · 0-0
FavoriteNavy
Win Probability98%
Margin-30.9
Total53.2
at Navy
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 3:30 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
UT Rio Grande ValleyFCS / Other
Projected Final15–42UTSA 96%
UTSAMPR #73 · 0-0
FavoriteUTSA
Win Probability96%
Margin-26.6
Total57.1
at UTSA
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 4:15 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
North AlabamaFCS / Other
Projected Final8–50Arkansas 100%
ArkansasMPR #49 · 0-0
FavoriteArkansas
Win Probability100%
Margin-41.4
Total58.2
at Arkansas
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 5:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
Alcorn StateFCS / Other
Projected Final19–35Southern Miss 85%
Southern MissMPR #131 · 0-0
FavoriteSouthern Miss
Win Probability85%
Margin-15.6
Total53.9
at Southern Miss
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 6:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
Norfolk StateFCS / Other
Projected Final5–43Old Dominion 100%
Old DominionMPR #88 · 0-0
FavoriteOld Dominion
Win Probability100%
Margin-38.7
Total48.3
at Old Dominion
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 7:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
Abilene ChristianFCS / Other
Projected Final6–45Texas Tech 99%
Texas TechMPR #7 · 0-0
FavoriteTexas Tech
Win Probability99%
Margin-38.4
Total51.0
at Texas Tech
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 7:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
Austin PeayFCS / Other
Projected Final13–42Vanderbilt 98%
VanderbiltMPR #34 · 0-0
FavoriteVanderbilt
Win Probability98%
Margin-29.6
Total54.7
at Vanderbilt
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 7:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
Charleston SouthernFCS / Other
Projected Final14–40Georgia Southern 96%
Georgia SouthernMPR #102 · 0-0
FavoriteGeorgia Southern
Win Probability96%
Margin-25.8
Total53.8
at Georgia Southern
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 7:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
Eastern KentuckyFCS / Other
Projected Final22–33Jacksonville State 77%
Jacksonville StateMPR #106 · 0-1
FavoriteJacksonville State
Win Probability77%
Margin-11.0
Total54.7
at Jacksonville State
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 7:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
Houston ChristianFCS / Other
Projected Final9–41Rice 98%
RiceMPR #121 · 0-0
FavoriteRice
Win Probability98%
Margin-32.3
Total50.4
at Rice
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 7:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
Idaho StateFCS / Other
Projected Final21–33Utah State 79%
Utah StateMPR #97 · 0-0
FavoriteUtah State
Win Probability79%
Margin-12.1
Total53.3
at Utah State
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 7:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
Murray StateFCS / Other
Projected Final21–32Middle Tennessee 77%
Middle TennesseeMPR #135 · 0-0
FavoriteMiddle Tennessee
Win Probability77%
Margin-11.1
Total52.9
at Middle Tennessee
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 7:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
NichollsFCS / Other
Projected Final6–48Kansas State 100%
Kansas StateMPR #30 · 0-0
FavoriteKansas State
Win Probability100%
Margin-42.0
Total54.4
at Kansas State
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 7:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
SE LouisianaFCS / Other
Projected Final25–31South Alabama 66%
South AlabamaMPR #115 · 0-0
FavoriteSouth Alabama
Win Probability66%
Margin-6.3
Total55.5
at South Alabama
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 7:30 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
Northwestern StateFCS / Other
Projected Final6–47Louisiana Tech 100%
Louisiana TechMPR #98 · 0-0
FavoriteLouisiana Tech
Win Probability100%
Margin-41.1
Total52.5
at Louisiana Tech
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 7:30 PM ESTFCS CAL · QA WATCH
VMIFCS / Other
Projected Final5–47Virginia Tech 100%
Virginia TechMPR #31 · 0-0
FavoriteVirginia Tech
Win Probability100%
Margin-42.0
Total52.3
at Virginia Tech
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 8:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
HamptonFCS / Other
Projected Final4–46Maryland 100%
MarylandMPR #50 · 0-0
FavoriteMaryland
Win Probability100%
Margin-42.0
Total50.1
at Maryland
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 8:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
LamarFCS / Other
Projected Final20–36Louisiana 84%
LouisianaMPR #102 · 0-0
FavoriteLouisiana
Win Probability84%
Margin-15.1
Total56.1
at Louisiana
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 8:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
South Dakota StateFCS / Other
Projected Final17–31Northwestern 81%
NorthwesternMPR #48 · 0-0
FavoriteNorthwestern
Win Probability81%
Margin-13.2
Total48.0
at Northwestern
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 8:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
Utah TechFCS / Other
Projected Final5–47BYU 100%
BYUMPR #14 · 0-0
FavoriteBYU
Win Probability100%
Margin-42.0
Total51.7
at BYU
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 9:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
MercyhurstFCS / Other
Projected Final13–38New Mexico State 95%
New Mexico StateMPR #123 · 0-1
FavoriteNew Mexico State
Win Probability95%
Margin-25.4
Total51.0
at New Mexico State
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 9:30 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
Northern ArizonaFCS / Other
Projected Final11–42Arizona 98%
ArizonaMPR #29 · 0-0
FavoriteArizona
Win Probability98%
Margin-31.0
Total52.3
at Arizona
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 9:30 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
Portland StateFCS / Other
Projected Final7–42San Diego State 99%
San Diego StateMPR #72 · 0-0
FavoriteSan Diego State
Win Probability99%
Margin-35.0
Total49.5
at San Diego State
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 10:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
Mississippi Valley StateFCS / Other
Projected Final10–42Sacramento State 98%
Sacramento StateMPR #130 · 0-1
FavoriteSacramento State
Win Probability98%
Margin-31.8
Total52.5
at Sacramento State
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
SAT, SEP 5 · 10:00 PM ESTFCS CALIBRATED
Morgan StateFCS / Other
Projected Final5–45Arizona State 100%
Arizona StateMPR #42 · 0-0
FavoriteArizona State
Win Probability100%
Margin-39.7
Total50.4
at Arizona State
FBS vs FCS · FCS CAL v1.1 · PROJECTION ONLY
MON, SEP 7 · 7:30 PM ESTGAME LAB TOSS-UP
SMUMPR #27 · 0-0
Projected Final26–26Florida State 51%
Florida StateMPR #36 · 1-0
FavoriteFlorida State
Win Probability51%
Margin-0.4
Total51.5
at Florida State
FBS vs FBS · SECONDARY SIDE EDGE
Side · Florida State +3.4Watch · QB Kevin JenningsOpen Game Lab
No games match the current filters.
Reading the board: Week 1 is the locked Phase II snapshot. A core HOLD with missing score/probability/margin is displayed as HOLD rather than fabricated. Conditional personnel and QA holds retain their existing projection but are visibly tagged. Week 0 shows certified finals beside the original pregame model.