Matrix Power Rating17.9National #11
Projected Wins7.92National #26
Schedule Strength#16National SOS rank
Projected Offense32.2Points per game
Projected Defense22.9Points allowed
Point Differential+9.3Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
The Week 0 game is now final, but the evidence did not clear the threshold for a team-strength adjustment. Current MPR and projected wins therefore remain at the approved baseline.
Week 0 ResultW 42–26
MPR17.9 → 17.9
Projected Wins7.92 → 7.92
Model update note
Final margin missed prior, but game was 35-3 after 3Q. Guardrail: Garbage-time protection.
External Headlines
Latest USC news.
Loading team headlines…
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The current headline projection is post-Week-0. The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (8 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total8.5
Effective Market8.31
Adjusted Edge-0.39
SignalLean
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Week 0 is final. Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 4FSFresno StateHome · Nonconference93%Win %36–14Baseline score+21.9Margin50.5TotalHighFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.