Matrix Power Rating16.8National #14
Projected Wins9.11National #10
Schedule Strength#53National SOS rank
Projected Offense32.5Points per game
Projected Defense19.2Points allowed
Point Differential+13.3Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR16.8 → 16.8
Projected Wins9.11 → 9.11
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (9 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total8.5
Effective Market8.67
Adjusted Edge+0.44
SignalLean
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 5UTUtah TechHome · Nonconference100%Win %47–5Week 1 calibrated+42.0Margin51.7TotalMediumFCS CAL v1.1Opponent
SEP 19CSColorado StateAway · Nonconference93%Win %35–13Baseline score+22.9Margin48.1TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 17NDNotre DameHome · Nonconference33%Win %23–30Baseline score-6.4Margin53.5TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.