Matrix Power Rating8.7National #37
Projected Wins6.38National #68
Schedule Strength#44National SOS rank
Projected Offense29.2Points per game
Projected Defense23.9Points allowed
Point Differential+5.4Projected per game
Current Context
Certified UpdateWhat Changed
The Week 0 result cleared the model-update gate. The adjustment is reflected in the current MPR, national rank and projected-wins figures above.
Week 0 ResultL 10–15
MPR9.7 → 8.7
Projected Wins7.25 → 6.38
Model update note
Offensive underperformance + penalties. Guardrail: Weather suppresses move.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The current headline projection is post-Week-0. The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (7 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total7.5
Effective Market7.21
Adjusted Edge+0.04
SignalNo Edge
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Week 0 is final. Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
AUG 29NCNorth CarolinaNeutral · FINALLResult10–15Pre-game model 27–22—Win %—TotalFinal-5Actual margin
SEP 12GSGrambling StateHome · Nonconference98%Win %42–11Baseline score+30.9Margin52.6TotalMediumFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 19ASArkansas StateHome · Nonconference91%Win %38–18Baseline score+20.4Margin55.2TotalHighFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.