Matrix Power Rating2.1National #59
Projected Wins5.58National #93
Schedule Strength#62National SOS rank
Projected Offense28.5Points per game
Projected Defense25.2Points allowed
Point Differential+3.3Projected per game
Current Context
Certified UpdateWhat Changed
The Week 0 result cleared the model-update gate. The adjustment is reflected in the current MPR, national rank and projected-wins figures above.
Week 0 ResultL 8–34
MPR5.1 → 2.1
Projected Wins6.85 → 5.58
Model update note
168 total yards; 89 passing; repeated empty drives. Guardrail: Recheck offense after next game.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The current headline projection is post-Week-0. The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (7 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total7.5
Effective Market7.23
Adjusted Edge-0.38
SignalLean
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Week 0 is final. Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 11RRichmondHome · Nonconference88%Win %36–18Baseline score+17.5Margin54.3TotalMediumFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 19VVanderbiltAway · Nonconference32%Win %25–32Baseline score-6.8Margin57.1TotalMediumFBSOpponent
SEP 26ASAppalachian StateHome · Nonconference90%Win %38–18Baseline score+19.6Margin55.8TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.