Matrix Power Rating-10.7National #107
Projected Wins5.12National #101
Schedule Strength#93National SOS rank
Projected Offense23.9Points per game
Projected Defense27.0Points allowed
Point Differential-3.0Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-10.7 → -10.7
Projected Wins5.12 → 5.12
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (5 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total5.5
Effective Market5.45
Adjusted Edge-0.33
SignalNo Edge
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 5LLafayetteHome · Nonconference — FCS65%Win %29–23Baseline score+5.8Margin52.3TotalLowFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 19SMSouthern MissAway · Nonconference75%Win %32–22Baseline score+10.1Margin54.4TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 23MMassachusettsHome · Nonconference93%Win %37–15Baseline score+22.1Margin51.2TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 7NCNorth CarolinaHome · Nonconference21%Win %18–31Baseline score-11.5Margin48.8TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 14JMJames MadisonHome · Nonconference33%Win %23–29Baseline score-6.6Margin52.2TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 21ODOld DominionHome · Nonconference42%Win %23–26Baseline score-2.4Margin48.7TotalLowFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.