Matrix Power Rating-9.0National #105
Projected Wins5.99National #81
Schedule Strength#106National SOS rank
Projected Offense22.7Points per game
Projected Defense22.8Points allowed
Point Differential-0.2Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-9.0 → -9.0
Projected Wins5.99 → 5.99
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (6 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total5.5
Effective Market5.54
Adjusted Edge+0.45
SignalLean
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 5CSColorado StateAway · Nonconference41%Win %19–23Baseline score-3.4Margin42.3TotalLowFBSOpponent
SEP 12NCNorthern ColoradoHome · Nonconference — FCS80%Win %29–17Baseline score+12.6Margin45.9TotalMediumFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 19CMCentral MichiganAway · Nonconference52%Win %22–21Baseline score+0.7Margin43.2TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 3NDNorth Dakota StateAway · Mountain West24%Win %17–28Baseline score-10.7Margin44.9TotalHighFBSOpponent
OCT 9SJSan Jose StateAway · Mountain West58%Win %25–22Baseline score+3.0Margin46.2TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 17NINorthern IllinoisHome · Mountain West78%Win %27–15Baseline score+11.4Margin42.3TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 23AFAir ForceHome · Mountain West39%Win %21–25Baseline score-4.2Margin46.5TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 20NMNew MexicoHome · Mountain West34%Win %20–26Baseline score-6.2Margin45.7TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.